2104-05 ABL Offseason Discussion and Analysis

[Huckleberry]

Getting this started a bit late because life gets in the way, but wanted to track things for my league throughout the offseason.  So let's get started with a quick 2104 recap and major roster moves up to today.

Final 2104 Standings:

NORTH AMERICAN DIVISION

Team W L PCT GB Pyt.Rec Milwaukee Brewers 89 67 .571 - 87-69 Los Angeles Stars 87 69 .558 2 85-71 Mexico City Aztecs 83 73 .532 6 81-75 Tampa Bay Tocobagas 59 97 .378 30 62-94 New York City Empires 57 99 .365 32 57-99 LATIN AMERICAN DIVISION Team W L PCT GB Pyt.Rec Buenos Aires Dolphins 89 67 .571 - 93-63 Sao Paulo Toucans 84 72 .538 5 85-71 Santo Domingo Palmchats 83 73 .532 6 80-76 Bogota Condors 76 80 .487 13 75-81 Rio de Janeiro Jaguars 73 83 .468 16 78-78 Major Roster Changes through 12/15/2104: (Defined as 3-star or better overall rated players contract status changes.  Only 3-star or higher player changes are shown below, trades are included if any player is 3-star or higher.  Automatic contract renewals are not listed.) Option Year Decisions: Bogotá - Mark Villa declines his option Bogotá - William Elmore executes his $4,800,000 option for 2105 Bogotá - Tommy Gommers declines his option Buenos Aires - Vassily Yaitsky declines his option Milwaukee - Irving Butler meets vesting criteria, will receive $4,720,000 for 2105 season Rio de Janeiro - Bought out option year of Arvi Tuomainen for $422,500 Santo Domingo - Sasha Matyushenko declines his option São Paulo - Aquilino Correa meets vesting criteria, will receive $10,000,000 for 2105 season Tampa Bay - Ralph Martin declines his option Free Agency Filings: Bogotá - Tommy Gommers, Seung-kab Park, Mark Villa Buenos Aires - Rick Etheridge, Max Smith, Vassily Yaitsky Los Angeles - Prospero Calaa Mexico City - Idris Murtadi New York - Juan Hernádez Rio de Janeiro - Arvi Tuomainen, Luis Vázquez Santo Domingo - Sasha Matyushenko Tampa Bay - José Estrada, Ralph Martin, Justin White Trades: New York City Empires: Traded $1 to the Black Forest Foxes (IBL), getting Ridha Ragheb and Yok-sing Li in return. Free Agent Signings: Rio de Janeiro - Signed Justin White to a $25,000,000 5-year contract. Santo Domingo - Signed Seung-kab Park to a $750,000 1-year contract. Santo Domingo - Signed Luis Vázquez to a $15,300,000 5-year contract. Santo Domingo - Signed Ataka Vasava to a $12,960,000 4-year contract. São Paulo - Signed Ralph Martin to a $66,000,000 5-year contract. Extensions: Buenos Aires - Signed Clifford Mitchell to a $43,500,000 5-year extension. São Paulo - Signed Carlos Vargas to a $40,000,000 5-year extension. Current Predicted 2105 Standings: (Based on my proprietary trade secret formula.  Keep in mind that there have been 5 different ABL champions in our 5 seasons and I've won none of them, so you get what you pay for with these previews.) NORTH AMERICAN DIVISION Team W L PCT GB Milwaukee Brewers 91 65 0.591 - Los Angeles Stars 79 77 0.513 12 Mexico City Aztecs 70 86 0.455 21 New York City Empires 56 100 0.364 35 Tampa Bay Tocobagas 55 101 0.357 36 LATIN AMERICAN DIVISION Team W L PCT GB Sao Paulo Toucans 102 54 0.662 - Santo Domingo Palmchats 88 68 0.571 14 Rio de Janeiro Jaguars 86 70 0.558 16 Bogota Condors 81 75 0.526 21 Buenos Aires Dolphins 72 84 0.468 30

[Echo127]

Woah, woah, woah, I'm suddenly projected to go 16 over .500? That's...interesting.  Sure, I signed Justin White, but I'm not sure he's worth 26 WAR ;-)

[Huckleberry]

Hahaha, yeah.  Early in the offseason it will be in a lot of flux as there are some bare organizations that will be signing all the free agents.  After all, they've got to go somewhere.  I'm kind of interested in seeing how my predicted records match up with OOTP's predictions at the end of spring training.

[Coop]

Also, for what it's worth, I think the Jaguars were unlucky in 2104.  Looking at their roster, I think they were a lot better than their record indicated.

[squaredrive]

awesome analysis! 

Will be interesting to see - mexico city returning pretty much the same team from being 10 over .500 so that would be a disappointing season. Admittedly, the offensive talent is offensive right now.

[Huckleberry]

awesome analysis! 

Will be interesting to see - mexico city returning pretty much the same team from being 10 over .500 so that would be a disappointing season. Admittedly, the offensive talent is offensive right now.

That is one shortcoming in my model that I will be addressing moving forward.  The model currently just determines records for the league overall and does not take into account unbalanced schedules.  So the fact that 48 of your 156 games are against Tampa Bay and New York is not considered yet.  That is the next thing I'm going to try to figure out how to add.

[Huckleberry]

This is with my revised formula that takes schedule into account:

NORTH AMERICAN DIVISION

Team W L PCT GB Milwaukee Brewers 96 60 0.615 - Los Angeles Stars 82 74 0.526 14 Mexico City Aztecs 72 84 0.462 24 New York City Empires 56 100 0.359 40 Tampa Bay Tocobagas 55 101 0.353 41 LATIN AMERICAN DIVISION Team W L PCT GB Sao Paulo Toucans 102 54 0.654 - Santo Domingo Palmchats 86 70 0.551 16 Rio de Janeiro Jaguars 84 72 0.538 18 Bogota Condors 79 77 0.506 23 Buenos Aires Dolphins 68 88 0.436 34 Doesn't make as big a difference as I'd thought, but it makes sense.  The biggest changes are to the top teams in the worse division and the bottom teams in the better division.

[Huckleberry]

The Brewers further separated themselves from the North American pack with two big signings in the only significant moves of the sim.

Major Roster Changes 12/16 through 12/22/2104:

Milwaukee - Signed free agent CL Max Smith to a 3-year contract worth a total of $14,160,000.
Milwaukee - Signed free agent RF Tommy Gommers to a 5-year contract worth a total of $42,500,000.

Current Predicted 2105 Standings:

NORTH AMERICAN DIVISION

Team W L PCT GB Milwaukee Brewers 106 50 0.679 - Los Angeles Stars 79 77 0.506 27 Mexico City Aztecs 70 86 0.449 36 Tampa Bay Tocobagas 59 97 0.378 47 New York City Empires 53 103 0.340 53 LATIN AMERICAN DIVISION Team W L PCT GB Sao Paulo Toucans 100 56 0.641 - Santo Domingo Palmchats 83 73 0.532 17 Bogota Condors 81 75 0.519 19 Rio de Janeiro Jaguars 81 75 0.519 19 Buenos Aires Dolphins 68 88 0.436 32 I forgot to make some modifications when I first posted this update.  Things get even better for Milwaukee.  And worse for my Palmchats.

[Coop]

I'm in the IBL, so I don't follow the ABL that closely.  But I'm curious as to what's going on with Buenos Aires?  The Dolphins won their division in 2104 with a record of 89-67; the new projection shows them finishing last in their division in 2105, with a record of 68-88.  What happened, did their team plane go down?

[Huckleberry]

Yep, the model doesn't like them but I think it's exaggerating their issues.  They did lose some talent and haven't signed any replacements yet, plus Daniel Garcia pitched like a god last season whereas he's really only a good pitcher talentwise.

[Havana_Jake]

We might have over-achieved last year, but I would guess this has more to do with some empty spots on my roster that won't be empty by spring training. I will admit it is a little worrisome, still.

[Huckleberry]

I think it's more likely that my model gets egg on its face than your team.  But we'll see.

[Huckleberry]

Major Roster Changes 12/22/2104 through 1/11/2105:
Santo Domingo - Signed free agent RP Arvi Tuomainen to a 1-year contract worth a total of $400,000.
Santo Domingo - Signed free agent SS José Estrada to a 4-year contract worth a total of $11,250,000.
New York - Signed free agent SP Dalmr Mazi to a 4-year contract worth a total of $18,280,000.

Current Predicted 2105 Standings:

NORTH AMERICAN DIVISION

Team W L PCT GB Milwaukee Brewers 103 53 0.660 - Los Angeles Stars 81 75 0.519 22 Mexico City Aztecs 69 87 0.442 34 Tampa Bay Tocobagas 59 97 0.378 44 New York City Empires 57 99 0.365 46 LATIN AMERICAN DIVISION Team W L PCT GB Sao Paulo Toucans 99 57 0.635 - Santo Domingo Palmchats 83 73 0.532 16 Bogota Condors 80 76 0.513 19 Rio de Janeiro Jaguars 79 77 0.506 20 Buenos Aires Dolphins 70 86 0.449 29

[Huckleberry]

Major Roster Changes 1/12/2105 through 1/25/2105:

No 3-star or greater player changes

Current Predicted 2105 Standings:

NORTH AMERICAN DIVISION

Team W L PCT GB Milwaukee Brewers 104 52 0.667 - Los Angeles Stars 82 74 0.526 22 Mexico City Aztecs 69 87 0.442 35 Tampa Bay Tocobagas 58 98 0.372 46 New York City Empires 55 101 0.353 49 LATIN AMERICAN DIVISION Team W L PCT GB Sao Paulo Toucans 98 58 0.628 - Santo Domingo Palmchats 85 71 0.545 13 Bogota Condors 80 76 0.513 18 Rio de Janeiro Jaguars 80 76 0.513 18 Buenos Aires Dolphins 69 87 0.442 29

[Echo127]

Free Agents are being really finicky for me this offseason...there's a certain free agent that said for 3 weeks that my offer was good and he was probably going to take it.  Then he changes his mind and says I'm really close, but he wants more money...but what he asks for is *exactly* what I already offered him.  So I submit it again, and he says it's cool.  Than after another sim or 2 he says he got a better offer from another team and asks for a 50% increase in $.  I lowball him at 25% of the increase he asked for, (and I'm not talking about a small contract) and now he says I'm in the lead again? I swear he's just stringing me along for kicks.

[Huckleberry]

Ha.  That's crappy for you but funny for us.   

[Coop]

Milwaukee's projected for 104 wins and can't find a GM?  Makes perfect sense.

[claphamsa]

Free Agents are being really finicky for me this offseason...there's a certain free agent that said for 3 weeks that my offer was good and he was probably going to take it.  Then he changes his mind and says I'm really close, but he wants more money...but what he asks for is *exactly* what I already offered him.  So I submit it again, and he says it's cool.  Than after another sim or 2 he says he got a better offer from another team and asks for a 50% increase in $.  I lowball him at 25% of the increase he asked for, (and I'm not talking about a small contract) and now he says I'm in the lead again? I swear he's just stringing me along for kicks.

better than having no money to spend

[Huckleberry]

I also think the rest of us can help him out if he tells us who it is and how much he's offering. 

[Echo127]

This is the kind of crap I'm talking about. These are 2 different players, and neither is the one I complained about earlier.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B_qfPp6O90YDY2NnbHk0dDVZbjQ

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B_qfPp6O90YDcVpuaktFc1ptY2M

[Huckleberry]

That's weird, I haven't seen that before.  I'd send it to OOTP as a bug.

[Huckleberry]

Shakeup in the ABL projected playoff race as Rio's signing of Ananas solidifies their offense.  Given the bargain they got him for, this could be the value signing of the ABL offseason.

 Major Roster Changes 1/26/2105 through 2/1/2105:

Buenos Aires - Signed free agent 3B Vassily Yaitsky to a 4-year contract worth a total of $15,400,000.
Rio de Janeiro Jaguars - Signed free agent LF Cahyono Ananas to a 1-year contract worth a total of $935,000.

Current Predicted 2105 Standings:

NORTH AMERICAN DIVISION

Team W L PCT GB Milwaukee Brewers 104 52 0.667 - Los Angeles Stars 81 75 0.519 23 Mexico City Aztecs 69 87 0.442 35 Florida Hurricanes 57 99 0.365 47 New York City Empires 55 101 0.353 49 LATIN AMERICAN DIVISION Team W L PCT GB Sao Paulo Toucans 98 58 0.628 - Santo Domingo Palmchats 84 72 0.538 14 Rio de Janeiro Jaguars 82 74 0.526 16 Bogota Condors 80 76 0.513 18 Buenos Aires Dolphins 70 86 0.449 28

[claphamsa]

That's weird, I haven't seen that before.  I'd send it to OOTP as a bug.

good luck with that, I was a beta tester a couple versions ago, and rasied issue with this problem. the hivemind at OOTP considers it a feature.

[Echo127]

I was just thinking...maybe it's because they don't like my team options?

[Huckleberry]

Certainly possible, although I use team options sometimes and still haven't seen it.

[Huckleberry]

Final Predicted Standings as Spring Training is underway:

NORTH AMERICAN DIVISION

Team W L PCT GB Washington Senators 104 52 0.667 - Los Angeles Stars 81 75 0.519 23 Mexico City Aztecs 68 88 0.436 36 Florida Hurricanes 57 99 0.365 47 New York City Empires 57 99 0.365 47 LATIN AMERICAN DIVISION Team W L PCT GB Sao Paulo Toucans 99 57 0.635 - Santo Domingo Palmchats 84 72 0.538 15 Rio de Janeiro Jaguars 81 75 0.519 18 Bogota Condors 80 76 0.513 19 Buenos Aires Dolphins 69 87 0.442 30 Here are OOTP's predicted standings (available on the HTML reports): Some major differences there, particularly the Senators, Stars, Empires, and Dolphins.