What's At Stake: Week of 9/16/26

[Bob_Meteors]

With only 12 games left in the regular season, this week features some hugely important series in both leagues. Division titles, wild card races, and ladder tournament positions could all be determined this sim.

In the ABL, the Rio de Janeiro Jaguars look to extend their lead on the Northwest Emeralds for the #1 overall seed. Rio currently is one game ahead of Northwest, but will play the Phoenix Burros and Puerto Rico Coqui, two relatively weak teams. Northwest's schedule this week is also fairly easy, with matchups against the Mexico City Aztecs and Los Angeles Stars. Either team could stumble, but it's Rio's #1 seed to lose.

The Latin American division title is also very much up for grabs. The Havana Dolphins sit just 2 games behind Rio. They'll match up with Puerto Rico and the São Paulo Toucans. Given Rio's easy schedule, it's unlikely that Havana will gain much ground, but they'll need to perform well to have a chance at the division in the final week.

But of course, the most important race in the ABL is for the second wild card spot. The Santo Domingo Palmchats currently have that spot, just one game ahead of São Paulo - who they happen to play this week. Santo Domingo's other series is against the unthreatening Edmonton Trappers, while São Paulo plays Havana, meaning that the Toucans absolutely need to win their series with Santo Domingo. Neither team will clinch this week, but the Palmchats can come very close with a good showing.

Also, Mexico City will officially be eliminated from playoff contention this week, barring a miracle or two. At 11 games back, they were functionally eliminated weeks ago, but tonight will make it official.

If the ABL's playoff picture looks all too familiar - Rio, Havana, Northwest, and one of Santo Domingo or São Paulo, like it is every year - the IBL's features some new faces. But first, we'll look at the battle between the Cairo Pharaohs and Mumbai Cobras for the #1 seed. The Pharaohs and Cobras are currently tied at 96-48 (an impressive record with 12 games still to play, and a full 11 games ahead of the best ABL record). Cairo will be facing the Ljubljana Dragons, while Mumbai plays the Melbourne Meteors, before the two giants face off against each other. Ljubljana and Melbourne are both good but beatable teams, who could win a series against Cairo/Mumbai, but could just as feasibly get swept. In all likelihood, a sweep in the Cairo vs Mumbai series would decide the #1 seed, but a 2-1 series victory would probably leave some doubt heading into the final week.

Now, to the IBL wild card. The Manila Folders currently sit in the first wild-card spot, 5 games ahead of WC2 and 8 games clear of the first non-playoff team. They can clinch their playoff spot tonight, although they're already almost guaranteed to make the playoffs. Manila will play the Tokyo Shogun (probably the worst team in the IBL) and the Melbourne Meteors, and should clinch the first wild-card spot without a problem.

The second wild-card spot is more interesting. Melbourne has a 3-game lead over the Rome Generals, but Melbourne will be playing Mumbai and Manila, while Rome will face the Black Forest Foxes and Ljubljana Dragons. Melbourne could prove they're a playoff team with two good series tonight, or fall into a tie with Rome with two bad ones.

On the fringes, Black Forest is 5 games behind Melbourne, and Ljubljana is 6 back. A five-game lead with 12 to play is fairly close to insurmountable, yet stranger things have happened. Black Forest would probably need two sweeps tonight, against Rome and the Paris Fleur-de-Lis, but that's certainly possible. Ljubljana would also need two sweeps, but with a matchup against Cairo, that's probably not going to happen.

And finally, let's look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for each team at the conclusion of this sim. These are not the best or worst situations mathematically possible, but the best or worst situations that could realistically occur (in this writer's opinion) after this sim.

Rio - Best case: 6-0 sim, Northwest goes 2-4, essentially guaranteeing the #1 seed. Worst case: 3-3 sim, Northwest goes 6-0, Havana goes 6-0, putting Rio in the first wild-card spot.

Northwest - Best case: 6-0 sim, Rio goes 3-3, Havana goes 2-4, putting NW in the #1 spot by 2 games. Worst case: 2-4 sim, Rio goes 6-0, essentially locking NW into the #2 seed as division winner.

Havana - Best case: 6-0 sim, Rio goes 3-3, Northwest goes 2-4, putting Havana as Latin division leaders and #1 seed by 1 game. Worst case: 1-5 sim, São Paulo goes 6-0, Santo Domingo goes 3-3, putting Havana tied for WC1 and 2 games ahead of the first non-playoff team.

Santo Domingo - Best case: 6-0 sim, São Paulo goes 0-6, Havana goes 4-2, putting SD solidly in the second wild card with an outside shot at the first. Worst case: 2-4 sim including getting swept by São Paulo, who goes 6-0, knocking SD 3 games out of the wild card.

São Paulo - Best case: 6-0 sim, Santo Domingo goes 2-4, Havana goes 2-4, putting SP into the second wild card (only one game behind Havana) and 3 games ahead of SD. Worst case: 0-6 sim, regardless of anything else, would end SP's playoff hopes.

Cairo - Best case: 6-0 sim basically guarantees the #1 seed. Worst case: 1-5 sim, including getting swept by Mumbai, basically guarantees the #2 seed.

Mumbai - Best case: 6-0 sim basically guarantees the #1 seed. Worst case: 1-5 sim, including getting swept by Cairo, basically guarantees the #2 seed. (yes, I copy-pasted the info for Cairo. They're in very similar situations.)

Manila - Best case: 6-0 sim (or really, anything other than being swept by Melbourne) should guarantee the first wild card. Worst case: It's almost impossible to conceive of a situation in which Manila hasn't clinched at least a playoff spot after this sim, but theoretically if they go 1-5 (including a series loss to Tokyo, highly unlikely) Melbourne could conceivably catch them.

Melbourne - Best case: 5-1 sim, including a sweep of Manila, and Rome loses each of its series 2-1, putting Melbourne within striking distance of WC1 and safely in the playoffs. Worst case: 0-6 sim, Rome goes 6-0, putting Melbourne 3 games outside of WC2 with a week to play.

Rome - Best case: 6-0 sim, Melbourne goes 0-6, putting Rome in WC2 by 3 games. Worst case: 0-6 sim, Melbourne goes 5-1, essentially eliminating the Generals.

Black Forest - Best case: 6-0 sim, Melbourne goes 0-6, Rome goes 0-6, Ljubljana sweeps Rome but is swept by Cairo, putting the Foxes in WC1 by one game. Worst case: anything better than 2-4 from Melbourne, or anything other than the Foxes sweeping Rome, would pretty much eliminate Black Forest.

Ljubljana - Sad to say, but I think the Dragons' unlikely run ends here. They'd need to sweep Cairo, as well as a bunch of other unlikely stuff happening, just to stay alive. I don't see it.