The draft pool problem.

[Coop]

Now that the draft is nearing its end, I think it’s time to address a long-standing problem which was discussed at some length in Slack at the start of the draft.  The problem, briefly stated, is that OOTP’s draft-pool player-generation model has a serious flaw; the “current” ratings for players don’t match the ages of the players.  In short, a talented 23-year-old player often gets current ratings that are the same as those given to an 18-year-old player.

Obviously this is neither logical nor realistic.  I think all of us would agree that a typical baseball player performs better at age 23 than at age 18.  (Ty Cobb was in the majors at age 18; he hit .238.  At age 23, he hit .382.)  But OOTP doesn’t reflect that reality.  Let me provide some examples from the current draft class.

The best pure hitter in the just-concluded draft is Zaim Yaseen.  His Contact potential is 8, Power potential is 8, Eye potential is 7.  He’ll be 23 after tonight’s sim.  A player that talented should be ready to play in the major leagues by age 23.  (I’ll provide proof of that statement in a moment.)  Is Yaseen going to be ready to play in the majors at age 23?  No way.  His current ratings in the three categories noted above are 5, 5, 5.  That’s a long, long way from 8, 8, 7.  Yaseen is currently a 1.0-star guy, clearly not good enough to play in the majors.  Assuming a normal rate of progression, he’ll be ready for the majors at about age 27.  Is that normal for a supremely talented hitter?  Uh, no.  Here are some of the top National League hitters of the past few seasons:

Harper.  Made his big-league debut at age 19.
Yelich.  Made his big-league debut at age 21.
Marte.  Made his big-league debut at age 23.
Blackmon.  Made his big-league debut at age 24.
Murphy.  Made his big-league debut at age 23.
Turner.  Made his big-league debut at age 24.
Votto.  Made his big-league debut at age 23.
Posey.  Made his big-league debut at age 22.
LeMahieu.  Made his big-league debut at age 22.

And now here’s our guy, Yaseen, a tremendous hitter just like those guys, and it looks like he might be ready for the majors at age 27.  Doesn’t fit, does it?

Yaseen isn’t the only guy in this situation.  In fact, there are guys in far WORSE situations.  Another outfielder drafted in Round One, Kuan-tai Ai, is 22 years old and is supposed to develop into a stud hitter (Contact 6, Power 9, Eye 7).  Current ratings:  2, 2, 2.  His current ratings are virtually the same as those of Johnny Beck, an 18-year-old outfielder with 0.5-star potential.  How realistic is it for a guy with tremendous hitting skill to be, at age 22, on the same level as an 18-year-old non-prospect like Johnny Beck?  Not very.  And then there’s Maroof Virk, another guy with fantastic hitting potential (Contact 7, Power 8, Eye 6).  He’s 22, turns 23 before Opening Day.  Current ratings:  Contact 3, Power 2, Eye 2.  Yeah, he might be ready for the major leagues on Opening Day.  That’s Opening Day of 2133, when he’s 28 years old.

So we’ve clearly got a problem.  What do we do about it?

Well, we could ignore it; we could just say that’s the way it’s been for years, so let’s live with it.  I don’t know how everybody else feels, but I’m strongly against that option.  I prefer to fix a problem, not ignore it.  If my house is on fire, I tend to want to put the fire out.

Another option would be to manually upgrade the current ratings of players in the draft pool.  I’ll suggest how this could be done.  Guys of age 22 and above should get their ratings upgraded by 2, across the board.  Guys of age 20-21 should get their ratings upgraded by 1, across the board.  Guys younger than 20 should be left alone.  (Obviously this would be a lot of work, but untangling a mess usually is.)

A third option would be to limit the draft pool to teenagers, ages 17-19.  That might sound stupid, but if OOTP is going to give every player in the pool a set of current ratings which belong on teenagers, then fine, we’ll just draft teenagers.  That way when a stud hitter like Zaim Yaseen is generated, he’ll be 18 years old instead of 22, with the result that we won’t have to tolerate the absurdity of seeing him make his big-league debut at age 27; he’ll make his debut at 22 or 23, a perfectly reasonable age.  It will be more realistic, and also more fair for the team which drafts him; they’ll get more years of productive service from him.

So that’s the situation.  How do we move forward from here?