ABL Hot Stove Discussion Thread

[Huckleberry]

I'll kick this off with a little State of the Organization recap for each team in the ABL as of the end of the postseason and then move into offseason moves and activities. We'll go in alphabetical order starting with the North American Division.

[Huckleberry]

Florida Hurricanes -

The Hurricanes finished last in the division last year with a 54-102 record, their third straight season with fewer than 60 wins. Of perhaps equal concern is that both their AAA and AA clubs also finished with fewer than 60 wins, albeit in shorter seasons, which has caused some of the Florida faithful to worry that their rebuilding program may take longer than hoped.

The offense needs particular attention as the Hurricanes were only 5 runs away from tying the record for the most futile offense in ABL history. And given that leaguewide scoring was 3.7% higher this year than when that record was set, it may be the case that the 2106 Florida Hurricanes had the worst offense in the brief history of the league. The good news is that Florida heads into the offseason with plenty of cash and a low payroll, so they may be expected to be active in the free agent market. This will be necessary if the club has any hope of reaching the WBA peak again as they did in 2102 when they won the world championship as the Twin Cities Millers.

[Huckleberry]

Los Angeles Stars -

Two years after winning a WBA title of their own, the Stars again reached the playoffs as a wild card team but this time they fell to Santo Domingo in the first round. Los Angeles rode a balanced club to the playoffs as they finished 5th in the league in both runs scored and runs allowed. This franchise has been a model of consistency as they have finished every season between 77-88 wins during the seven years the ABL has been active.

While there has been some concern on local media that the Stars find themselves in the proverbial purgatory of middle-of-the-pack strength where the draft picks aren't high enough and the money isn't good enough, there are definitely reasons for hope in LA. Former #1 pick Pat Morris dominated in AAA last season as a 24-year-old and is likely to make the big league rotation next year after acquitting himself well in 7 big league starts this year. Additionally fellow former #1 pick Sebastião Henriques also showed flashes in the majors at only 20 years old, so both players are expecting big things in 2107. It will be interesting to see where the Stars spend their limited cash and budget room in an effort to put the finishing touches on their 2107 squad.

[Huckleberry]

Mexico City Aztecs -

The first ABL champions in 2100, the Aztecs are still looking to make it back to the WBA Championship Series.  After a strong run for the first 5 seasons Mexico City finished with their second straight losing record last year at 68-88, good for 4th in the division. The offense was more to blame for the record as they finished 9th in runs scored compared to 6th in runs allowed by the pitching staff.

Young lefty Tolentino Goulart had a solid year on the hill and will be leaned on again in 2107. Former #1 pick Murilo Michalis may have a shot to make the rotation this year and while he had a slightly disappointing year in AAA he has all the tools to be a front-end starter for a long time in the WBA. Offensively the Aztecs are looking for Fernando Barrera's power to continue to develop as many have tagged him as a potential star at third base in the coming years. Overall, though, with a low payroll and a medium amount of cash we expect Mexico City to be a major player for offensive help during free agency.

[Huckleberry]

New York City Empires -

The simplest way to sum up the Empires is that they haven't been much of an empire. After going 83-73 in the WBA's first season, New York City has not been able to have a second winning season over the next six years. Last year's 71 wins did represent their second consecutive improvement, though, and there is some optimistic buzz around the club in the Big Apple.

At the plate the Empires were led by a breakthrough season from right fielder Francisco Reyes, who completely surpassed every expert's expectation in 2106. Along with first baseman Dave Mendoza there should be stability in the middle of the lineup despite the departure of catcher Jesús Chávez. While the pitching was respectable, though, New York City wmay finally have some frontline pitching talent on the way. Top prospect Serafino Cunhal should develop into an ace even if he's not quite ready to lead the rotation in 2107.  One thing many will be watching will be to see if the Empires move young phenom Claudio Morán from the bullpen into the rotation. Either way, they have the budget room to find some help if they so desire. Because of the imbalance in prospects, New York City may be more in the market for offensive help than for arms even though their offense was the better performer in 2106.

[Huckleberry]

Washington Senators -

The Senators fell in the ABL Championship Series for the second straight year in 2106, showing both that the club is an ABL power but also resulting in a disappointing finish for the fans. Washington is the only organization with two 100-win seasons in the ABL and did it in both of the last two years. The club's focus will be on one thing and one thing only - winning another ABL pennant to add to their 2103 WBA championship season.

Washington was led by the best pitching staff in the league last year, including a starting rotation which amazingly finished with five pitchers with all between 13 and 16 wins. That incredible rotation depth allowed the Senators to let Jorge Romano walk in free agency. Similarly, in the bullpen they allowed closer Germán Mejía to file for free agency thanks to depth on the relief staff. If there are any concerns in Washington, they would be centered around some analysts' belief that the offense overachieved last year, particularly via surprising performances from Austin Ramírez and Fernando González. That was balanced by a slightly disappointing year from Tommy Gommers, though, but the conventional wisdom is that the Senators will use their very limited budget room for reinforcements to the offense.

[Coop]

Enjoying these posts.  Would like to see something similar for the IBL teams --- you know, the really important teams.   

Would especially be curious to see what the impression is of my team.  Beyond the standard summary of "you suck," I mean.

[Huckleberry]

Thank you, and sounds like you're volunteering for the IBL. Thanks again! 

I will try to get there if I can.

[Huckleberry]

And now the Latin American Division.

Buenos Aires Dolphins -

Preseason optimism in Buenos Aires was not quite met by reality as the Dolphins finished exactly 0.500 at 78-78 in 2106. Despite the minor disappointment this was actually only the second non-losing record in Buenos Aires history, and along with the budget room they bring into the 2107 season, there is hope for a playoff run. The club will need to improve at the plate if they want that to happen as the extreme pitchers park they play in can't fully explain the discrepancy between being 2nd in the ABL in runs allowed compared to 7th in runs scored.

Offensively one of the few bright spots for Buenos Aires was veteran first baseman Lopo Sobaran who belted 34 home runs, including 20 on the road. Young outfielder Botol Ranho also had a good year considering Dolphins Stadium while centerfielder António Hernández may have struggled at the plate but was brilliant defensively. On the hill the Dolphins return ace Clifford Mitchell as well as stars Vicente Rodríguez and Zeusef Longle. The bullpen has lost 2106 closer Jim McCann to free agency, although John Solomon might finally be ready to step into that role. If not and no replacement is signed, electric youngster Juan Jose Martínez may be called upon. The Dolphins appear set with their pitching and defense but they will need to improve the offense if they hope to challenge for a title.

[Huckleberry]

Puerto Rico Coqui -

Puerto Rico finished with their fourth consecutive losing season in 2106, but they finally have a bit of cash and are under budget heading into the offseason. Any optimism is of course slightly lessened by the fact that they finished 48-108 for the season and in doing so broke the ABL record for losses by five full games. The culprit for the record was clearly the defensive side of the ball as the Coqui broke the ABL record for runs allowed by over 100 runs, and in a pitchers park no less. Further working against Puerto Rico is that their strong farm system is primarily strong based on younger prospects. There don't appear to be many major league ready studs on the way in 2107.

To be honest, and I'm not trying to rip on them here in the State of the Organization, Puerto Rico was essentially a AAAA baseball team in 2106 and looking for stars and top performances on the big league club only reinforced that. 2107 will again be a difficult campaign unless some genius free agent moves and trades seriously shake up the organization.  The hope for Coqui fans is in the future, as the rookie league and single A clubs had a combined record of 172-96 last season and both won their divisions. From here it looks like there is definitely a long-term improvement plan in play in San Juan and patience will be required but should ultimately pay off.

[Huckleberry]

Rio de Janeiro Jaguars -

Fresh off the 2105 ABL pennant the Jaguars came into the season with high hopes to become the first team to win multiple league titles. Unfortunately a disappointing year for their pitching staff caused a fall to 4th in the division as the final two teams to come in the ABL State of the Organization series both excelled on the field. Rio finished 4th in the league in runs scored but only 8th in runs allowed, a fact which is somewhat mitigated by the fact they play in a hitters park.

At the plate the Jaguars were led by second baseman (and occasional first baseman) Prazeres Matos who is locked up through the 2110 season. Their staff's best starter in 2106 was Bob Turner although they should be in the market for a #1 during free agency or in the trade market. By far their best player was closer Justin White who is also signed for the long haul as he has 3 more years remaining under contract. Rio needs both offensive and defensive help if they are to make a title run in this tough division next year, but they do come into the offseason with plenty of cash and some budget room. If any help is on the way it will likely be from continued development of top prospect Alfredo Ruíz (who would push Matos to first base full time).

[Huckleberry]

Santo Domingo Palmchats -

Santo Domingo rode a dream postseason to their first ABL pennant and the WBA championship last season, beginning with a win over São Paulo in a one-game playoff for the division. The numbers say that the regular season finish was a bit lucky as they outperformed their pythagorean expectation by two games while the Toucans had underperformed by five, but Palmchat fans aren't very concerned about that. They will argue that their dominant bullpen, 1st in the ABL with a 2.81 ERA, was a big reason for an absolutely absurd 34-14 record in one run games. That being said, such a record in close games can't be reasonably expected to repeat, and along with an aging roster that has caused expectations for a repeat to be tempered in 2107.

Offensively Santo Domingo was led by super rookie Cheslav Zamorov, who at one time was contemplating a full time move to the bullpen. Will Jones and fan favorite John Pottle also had outstanding years as did shortstop Mike Spears. The best offensive player lost by the Palmchats is third baseman José Estrada. Staff ace Gareth Pollock returns but there are rumors that his arm was starting to lose some juice to age as the season ended, even though he gutted out an amazing postseason. Behind Pollock the rotation is a collection of middling talent so the Palmchats will have to rely even more on their outstanding bullpen led by hometown hero Juan Barajas, who won the ABL Reliever of the Year despite not being a closer, and closer Max Smith. Youngster Jesús Mercado also came into his own in 2106. Santo Domingo looks to address their aging rotation where they've had disappointing development from a series of prospects as well as a weakness at the corner outfield positions this offseason.

[Huckleberry]

São Paulo Toucans -

The Toucans were the team that were unlucky in 2106 if the Palmchats were lucky. São Paulo's offense was perhaps even more dominant than had been expected, and the expectations were very high heading into 2106. They lead the league in runs scored, had four qualifying batters hit 0.329 or higher, three players with 30+ home runs, and three players with 100+ RBI. The offensive performance was so good that it somehow made their pitching staff seem pedestrian despite the fact they finished third in the ABL in runs allowed despite playing in a slight hitters park. All of this makes it very unsurprising that they finished the regular season 103-54 after a heartbreaking loss in the one game playoff.

There's little doubt who the offensive leader is even on this dominant offensive club as Carlos Vargas won his second straight ABL Position Player of the Year Award (during his 22-year-old season!!!). São Paulo fans sleep well at night knowing that Varags is signed through 2110. He is joined in the middle infield by second baseman Ralph Martin as well as by first baseman António González. The three of them together would be the strongest infield in the WBA even if the team owner decided to play third base himself. But with all that talent they were forced to make a decision this year and had to let star centerfielder Pio Seixas walk off to free agency. But the offense wasn't the only bright spot as the Toucans fielded an outstanding rotation led by surprisingly good seasons from all four top starters Luis Hernández, Álex Burgos, Roberto Morales, and Michael Shields. All four return for 2107, as do top relievers Woody Hensley and closer Roberto Flores. São Paulo certainly heads into the offseason as favorites for the 2107 ABL pennant.

[CaseyBlakeDeWitt]

Huck, these write ups are awesome! It's really quite fun to get an opportunity to read stuff about the league.

I do have to make a slight nitpick though, given that Roberto Morales has actually strayed into free agency this offseason.

[capn81]

New York City Empires -

The simplest way to sum up the Empires is that they haven't been much of an empire. After going 83-73 in the WBA's first season, New York City has not been able to have a second winning season over the next six years. Last year's 71 wins did represent their second consecutive improvement, though, and there is some optimistic buzz around the club in the Big Apple.

At the plate the Empires were led by a breakthrough season from right fielder Francisco Reyes, who completely surpassed every expert's expectation in 2106. Along with first baseman Dave Mendoza there should be stability in the middle of the lineup despite the departure of catcher Jesús Chávez. While the pitching was respectable, though, New York City wmay finally have some frontline pitching talent on the way. Top prospect Serafino Cunhal should develop into an ace even if he's not quite ready to lead the rotation in 2107.  One thing many will be watching will be to see if the Empires move young phenom Claudio Morán from the bullpen into the rotation. Either way, they have the budget room to find some help if they so desire. Because of the imbalance in prospects, New York City may be more in the market for offensive help than for arms even though their offense was the better performer in 2106.

Improvement is all that I am looking for at this time!  I have a couple of guys that I am trying to not rush into things, so I am going a bit cheap again this year. 

[squaredrive]

Great summaries Huck!  Thanks!!  Mexico City finally shed some horrendous contracts so looking to make more mistakes this offseason

[Coop]

Cap'n, I think you're taking the right approach by not rushing your prospects to the majors until they're really ready to contribute.  If you rush them, you generally don't get great production anyway, and you just lose a year of their service time.  Sometimes it's best to use a little patience.

[capn81]

Thanks Coop.  I knew that I would have a few bad years in the process, but I was hoping to make a bigger splash this next year.  I guess we shall see. 

[Huckleberry]

Major ABL Transactions through 12/19/16 (major league caliber player changes only - extensions not included):

Los Angeles: Signed free agent SP Veniamin Ekstein to a 5-year contract worth a total of $44,500,000.

Sao Paulo Toucans: Signed free agent CL Jim McCann to a 3-year contract worth a total of $7,500,000.

Mexico City Aztecs: Signed free agent SP Jorge Romano to a 4-year contract worth a total of $38,800,000.

New York City Empires: Signed free agent SP Martin Hendrickson to a 1-year contract worth a total of $580,000.

New York City Empires: Signed free agent 2B Jurdão Brito to a 3-year contract worth a total of $5,100,000.

Rio de Janeiro Jaguars: Signed free agent SP Rodger Bailey to a 5-year contract worth a total of $37,500,000.

Santo Domingo Palmchats: Signed free agent CF Pio Seixas to a 5-year contract worth a total of $48,500,000.


My take:

Almost all of these signings make good sense for each team.

Los Angeles was looking for one huge signing to hopefully put them over the hump and they landed the winningest pitcher in WBA history.

São Paulo shored up an already strong staff with a mid-range contract for Jim McCann, a former ABL closer who will likely work middle relief for the Toucans.

I was a little surprised that Mexico City signed Romano as I thought offense would be their focus, but Romano is a former Aztec great who is coming back home, so there is some logic there. Either way getting a pitcher like that can only help.

New York City signed a couple of serviceable options relatively cheap after capn81 told us that he was focusing a little more in the future with his squad. Hendrickson is old but he was signed to a cheap 1-year contract.

Rio needed pitching help as previously mentioned and landed Rodger Bailey. While on a WAR basis the price may seem a bit steep the truth is that pitching is expensive and Bailey has excellent rate stats. His WAR numbers suffer because of a low stamina rating which has resulted in (relatively) low innings pitched totals for such an effective starter.

And then I got Pio Seixas. As mentioned I needed corner outfield help and he will be slated to move to left field as Will Jones is the superior defender. On my trade block thread I was being honest when I said I didn't expect to sign him and was only driving up the price a bit, figuring someone would splurge $10M on him. I guess people were scared off by the "Fragile" injury rating.

[Huckleberry]

Roster moves 12/20-12/26/2106:

The Santo Domingo Palmchats traded 28-year-old third baseman Chi-seong Kim to the Black Forest Foxes, getting 23-year-old minor league starting pitcher Janardan Shreerang in return.

This move was presented as a salary dump. Kim put up a good performance for the Palmchats but they are ready to give one of their prospects a shot at third base and he is overpaid at over $5M per season. Shreerang is a boom or bust type prospect. If his control improves to the potential that scouts see and his changeup avoids the predicted decline then he could be a solid middle-of-the-rotation type starter. Or he could end up a long-term AAA arm. Either way he certainly isn't in Santo Domingo's major league plans for the 2107 season.

The Sao Paulo Toucans traded 24-year-old second baseman Félix Sánchez to the Rome Generals, getting 27-year-old center fielder Matthew Martindale in return.

If you just look at star ratings then it appears that the Toucans got fleeced on this deal, but that is highly misleading. OOTP's scouting services are applying their standard overrating of baserunning and speed in calling Sánchez a 5-star performer. This is actually a fairly even trade that helps shore up the Toucans' outfield after the lost of Pio Seixas. They dealt from a position of strength considering their infield boasts three bona fide superstars in Vargas, Martin, and González.

Mexico City Aztecs: Signed free agent SP Jason Murphy to a 3-year contract worth a total of $10,500,000.

The Aztecs continued to focus on their pitching staff to the surprise of some observers and signed the veteran Empires starter Murphy to a 3-year deal. Murphy has been a very consistent performer and has done quite well the last two seasons. Given their expectation of a 2.5-3 WAR year, Murphy's salary of $3.5M per year is in alignment with his true value.

[Huckleberry]

A couple of minor moves (including Mexico City shoring up their outfield with Osvaldo Ciuffo) so I thought I'd give the first peek at my predicted standings results:

NORTH AMERICAN DIVISION

Team W L PCT GB Washington Senators 90 66 0.577 - Mexico City Aztecs 76 80 0.487 14 Los Angeles Stars 75 81 0.481 15 New York City Empires 63 93 0.404 27 Florida Hurricanes 55 101 0.353 35 LATIN AMERICAN DIVISION Team W L PCT GB Sao Paulo Toucans 100 56 0.641 - Santo Domingo Palmchats 100 56 0.641 - Rio de Janeiro Jaguars 84 72 0.538 16 Buenos Aires Dolphins 83 73 0.532 17 Puerto Rico Coqui 54 102 0.346 46 The Toucans are ahead of the Palmchats based on rounding.  Keep in mind, as always, that this doesn't take into account each manager's lineup management, the players' injury ratings, etc.