ABL 2108-09 Hot Stove Discussion Thread

[Huckleberry]

2108 SEASON RESULTS:



PRE-OFFSEASON ABL PREDICTED 2109 STANDINGS:

NORTH AMERICAN DIVISION

Team W L PCT GB Mexico City Aztecs 87 69 0.558 - Northwest Emeralds 83 73 0.532 4 Washington Senators 69 87 0.442 18 Los Angeles Stars 65 91 0.417 22 New York City Empires 60 96 0.385 27 LATIN AMERICAN DIVISION Team W L PCT GB Buenos Aires Dolphins 102 54 0.654 - Sao Paulo Toucans 87 69 0.558 15 Rio de Janeiro Jaguars 86 70 0.551 16 Santo Domingo Palmchats 76 80 0.487 26 Puerto Rico Coqui 65 91 0.417 37 I hope to follow up on this thread with general State of the Organization reports for each ABL team as time permits, but discussion is of course welcome.

[Huckleberry]

Los Angeles Stars

The 2104 World Champions have been one of the most consistent franchises since the WBA's inception. Their season win totals, in order, have been 77-81-77-88-87-81-82-78-78. Despite having won it all in 2104, the Stars are still looking for their first North American Division title. Their GM is also super awesome considering he is one of only 4 remaining original owner/GMs in our little world. 

The outlook for 2109 does not appear to be so rosy heading into the offseason, though. As of press time this writer considers them to look like a league-average offense next year but they will need some help on the mound. There is a solid young core in Los Angeles with 2108 ABL Rookie of the Year Felipe Corond at SS, Player of the Year runner-up Sebastião Henriques in CF, and third place Rookie of the Year finisher Ryan Hernández at 3B. Offensively the places where Los Angeles may be looking for help would be at catcher and in the corner outfield slots. Behind the plate they will be hoping that Thierry Hamon can make the leap to major league contributor while the corner OF positions may require free agent help with not much in the system.

On the mound it was a very tough year for staff ace Veniamin Ekstein, who went 6-17 despite pretty good peripheral stats (3.60 FIP and a career low 2.7 BB/9) and an only slightly unlucky 0.324 BABIP. While his ERA was much higher than usual at 4.77 his run support was also a career-low with only 2.62 runs scored by his offense per game (I believe OOTP only counts runs scored while the pitcher is in the game). Given all of this, we can expect Ekstein to bounce back in 2109 with a much better year. Behind him, though, there is not much depth as staff #2 Alfred Reeves was traded to Northwest last season. Longtime underappreciated superstar closer Eurico Unas suddenly fell victim to age last season. The Stars must get pitching help via free agency, trades, or a surprise blossoming of a younger prospect if they hope to make the playoffs in 2109. If things go south, it may be the first truly subpar season in Los Angeles.

[Huckleberry]

Mexico City Aztecs

The first ABL champions, Mexico City advanced to the playoffs in each of the WBA's first four seasons but have not returned over the last five. Another of the 4 original WBA owner/GMs, my personal forecast system says the drought could very well end in 2109.

Whereas Los Angeles pairs a league average offense with a decidedly below average arms on the mound, Mexico City pairs a league average offense with perhaps the ABL's best overall pitching staff. Like the Stars, the Aztecs have a bright future as their best field players are almost uniformly young. Fu-Chi Luo was acquired from Rio de Janeiro last season and Mexico City fans and personnel are excited to get a full season of production from the young second baseman. Ramón Montés supplies solid defense and good pop at shortstop while Iván López has begun to show some of the talent that makes him one of the most promising hitters in baseball. The top prospect to keep an eye on is centerfielder Rafael Baca. Baca's bat may have some developing to do but reports from the minor leagues are that he may be the best centerfield glove in the world right now.

On the hill Mexico City has three pitchers with the talent to be staff aces somewhere in the WBA. Young prospect Murilo Michalis is one of the rarest of all WBA prospects - a first round starting pitcher selection who looks ready to reach his potential. After a horribly unlucky 2108 season (0.354 BABIP), I believe that he may be ready to become the Aztecs' #1 pitcher at only 24 years of age.  He joins Jorge Romano and Tolentino Goulart in giving Mexico city the best 1-2-3 combination in the ABL. In the bullpen Bob Poole should hold down the closer role as long as wildness and injuries don't hamper his season. Behind him, though there are several good arms in support. The Aztecs should challenge for the division crown and their 1-2-3 starting pitching combination makes them a very dangerous team if they make it to the playoffs.

[squaredrive]

Thanks for the write up Huck - def feel like my pitchers ran into some hard luck last year.  Mexico city fans were spoiled by the early league success. Looking for improvement this season, feel like we are moving back in the right direction. 

[Havana_Jake]

Huck these are great!

[Huckleberry]

New York City Empires

The suddenly ownerless Empires look to still be a bit away from their rebuilding project turning the corner. New York City has not been to the playoffs since their only appearance in 2100, the first year of the WBA. The patient and thorough rebuilding plan executed by former owner capn81 will have to be finished off by a new owner.

Offensively the Empires were led by young star CF Matt Valdés who led the team in WAR at only 20 years old. Overall, though, New York City comes into the 2109 season with the weakest offense in the ABL. Unfortunately there does not appear to be much immediate help on the horizon, so expect the Empires to look toward the future again, targeting perhaps 2110 for contention.

Pitching-wise New York City is also in the lower half of the ABL, led by staff ace Ronald Poe. Javier Durango provides a solid if unspectacular #2 starter, but after that the depth needed to compete is not present. In the bullpen, Marcos Ruíz looks ready to take over as the closer from the aging star Max Smith.

[Huckleberry]

Northwest Emeralds

The Emeralds had a huge year in 2108, moving from Florida to the Pacific Northwest and then turning the corner on their rebuilding effort with a surprising division title after 6 consecutive losing seasons. This year they won't have the benefit of sneaking up on anyone in a bid to reach the playoffs in back-to-back years for the first time.

Offensively they are led by star second baseman Jason Himes, who is now battling with Mexico City's Fu-Chi Luo as the ABL's best second baseman as age has caught up with John Pottle and Ralph Martin. Behind Himes, catcher Xie-Li Kang overachieved a bit last year and may come down to earth, but Northwest has a corps of young outfielders in Allberto Susano, slugger Roberto Parrina, and Hector Velasquez whose age-based improvement should more than make up for any Kang decline.

The Emeralds' true strength may be on the mound, though, especially after a blockbuster trade for Gadiel bin Salman during the WBA postseason. bin Salman joins Michael Smith to provide a lights out 1-2 combination for Northwest at the top of the rotation. Roberto Sánchez looks to have enough left in the tank for one more dominant season at closer for the Emeralds. Taken together, Northwest should be up for a season long battle with Mexico City for the North American Division.

[Huckleberry]

Washington Senators

Washington is an organization that had an impressive run but now looks to be moving toward a possible down cycle. The Senators won at least 100 games in both 2105 and 2106, the first ABL team to accomplish that feat, but did not win the league pennant in either season. There are some pieces available which could lend to a surprising playoff run, but as of now the offense looks like it will need much more help from the pitching staff than is currently available.

Chris Boone led the offense last year and received the richest arbitration contract in the WBA during the offseason. This year's team performance will likely determine whether Washington looks to lock him long-term with an extension before the season is through. After Boone the Senators will look toward Tilmão Tameiro (24 home runs in only 313 at-bats) to step into a full time role and deliver on his considerable promise. Washington has decent depth offensively if not any stars, but that doesn't look to be their main issue heading into 2109.

While Ben Reese and Ottavio Amico make for a decent front end of the rotation, after them the Senators are thin and a bit weak. But the real problem is in the bullpen as they look like they will struggle in relief, a nightmare scenario for any team that hopes to contend. After finishing 8th in bullpen ERA last year, it actually appears right now that they will likely finish even lower if no reinforcements are brought in.

[Huckleberry]

Buenos Aires Dolphins

The defending ABL champion Dolphins are coming off of back-to-back playoff appearances and appear poised to begin at least a short dynasty in 2109. They head into their title defense season with the league's best offense and perhaps the best pitching staff as well. It's not hard to see why the pre-offseason predictions had them at 102 wins next season.

Last season's best position player performance came from António Hernández, who had the second highest OPS on the team from centerfield. In 2109, though, most prognosticators expect big things from former first round picks Owen Stanton and Haywood Ward. Along with shortstop superstar Vinícius Caruma, these players represent the present and future in Buenos Aires and a major reason why the rest of the Latin American Division will have to get past the Dolphins if they want to win it any time in the near future.

While it's true that Buenos Aires has the strongest pitchers' park in the ABL, that should not take away from the talent on their staff. Clifford Mitchell could be the staff ace pretty much anywhere, and he's joined by Vicente Rodríguez, Zeusef Longle, Feliciano Pgo, and Harmage Partha in one of the league's best rotations. Partha, however, will miss the beginning of the season as he recovers from a torn flexor tendon. John Solomon will look to hold off Juan Jose Martinez for the closer role.

[Huckleberry]

Puerto Rico Coqui

The 2101 ABL Champions (while in Bogotá), this franchise has not had a winning season since that pennant-winning year. The rebuilding project in San Juan appears to be at least another year away, but the draft picks and prospects that have been compiled look like they may pay off soon.

As you would expect from a team in rebuilding mode, at least the 20 best position players in the organization are all under the age of 30. If Juan Baca can stay healthy again next year, the Coqui backstop has the ability to be the offensive leader. He will need to be more consistent, but the production potential is definitely there. The infield is in good hands with Jin-guo Chin and a stable of solid middle infielders, but outfield offense is one spot where Puerto Rico may still need to find long-term answers if they hope to flip the switch from rebuilding to winning.

Nick Hammond looks to be a potential superstar at the top of the rotation if he continues to develop, but behind him there is not enough help for the present edition of the Coqui to make much noise in the tough Latin American Division. There is definitely promise for the future with arms like Gaudêncio Bobadilha in the system.Clancy Carter appears to be the best bullpen option at the moment, but that merely underscores the fact that Puerto Rico is a club with their eyes still firmly on the future.

[Huckleberry]

Rio de Janeiro Jaguars

Beginning with Rio, the final three teams in our hot stove previews will all be attempting to battle for one of the two ABL wild card spots and, if things break right, challenge Buenos Aires for the division crown. The Jaguars are a well-balanced team with both an offense and pitching staff both solidly in the top half of the ABL.

Shortstop Piero Folena leads the offense and will reach the 1,000 hit milestone during the 2109 season. Behind the plate, Jack Playne should continue his productive if undersung career in Rio while Juan Carbajal will continue to offer solid defense along with on-base and basestealing ability out of centerfield. Ubaldo Nevel looks to bounce back from a broken elbow suffered last May.

Rodger Bailey leads a very deep and solid starting rotation while Dhrtadhiti Indrani showed the potential to become an ace of his own last year.  The Jaguars also hope to get another solid year from Bob Turner and that last year's elbow issues are not something that will continue to bother him.  Justin White is now clearly the best reliever in the league and the Rio closer is the defending ABL Reliever of the Year.

[Huckleberry]

Santo Domingo Palmchats

After two straight ABL and WBA titles, the Palmchats won their third straight Latin American Division title in 2108 but were taken down in the ABL Championship Series by the Dolphins. Heading into the current offseason the decision that needed to be made was whether to begin the rebuilding process or attempt to make another run with the current group. Santo Domingo appears to be choosing the latter.

John Pottle had been a fan favorite and the offensive leader for many years, and put together another good year in 2108. However, there are unofficial scouting reports from winter workouts that age is starting to catch up to him and he may be on the decline. Fortunately for Santo Domingo, Cheslav Zamorov more than made up for any decline last year and may be able to do so again. Will Jones and Pio Seixas round out the ABL's best outfield with Seixas hoping to avoid another injury-plagued season.

After the playoffs the clear weakness for the Palmchats was in the starting rotation as highly paid Gareth Pollock continued his decline and there were no other top of the rotation talents in the system. Accordingly, Santo Domingo gave up a king's ransom from Paris in order to acquire Zuleide Rainha and also signed Devin Mata to join the rotation. In the bullpen, Juan Barajas is also on the downswing of his career and it's possible that Jesús Mercado may supplant him in the closer role. Lorenzo Pedrazas also looks like a future stopper for the Palmchats.

[Huckleberry]

São Paulo Toucans

Perhaps the most consistently excellent franchise in the ABL, São Paulo had their first losing season in 2108. But despite being 2nd in all-time wins in the league, the Toucans are still searching for their ABL championship. While they are the hard luck team, there is still plenty of talent available to make a push next season.

Offensively the Toucans are led by the best player in the world, shortstop Carlos Vargas. Vargas will need to avoid the injury bug in 2109 if the Toucans are to reach their potential. António González stepped up in Vargas' place to provide plenty of offense last season, while future Hall of Famer Ralph Martin hope to fight off Father Time for one more run at glory with São Paulo. In the outfield Tony Cruz also has star potential if he can stay healthy.

The rotation is competent but lacks frontline greatness, with Luis Hernández likely being the best starter at this point. The ageless Falco Venema and solid Roberto Flores provide power out of the bullpen. Altogether the Toucans will need some luck to avoid injuries next year, but if they do then they will be in the playoff chase until the very end.

[Bob_Meteors]

These are great! WIll you do them for IBL too?

[Huckleberry]

Time permitting I think I will try. Just don't know the junior circuit quite as well.

[Echo127]

Love these. Nailed it with Rio. I feel like my team is very deep and well-rounded, but lacking the superstars that Buenos Aires has.

[Huckleberry]

Updated predicted standings with the tweaked system and moves through last night's sim:

NORTH AMERICAN DIVISION

Team W L PCT GB Mexico City Aztecs 86 70 0.551 - Northwest Emeralds 79 77 0.506 7 Los Angeles Stars 73 83 0.468 13 Washington Senators 70 86 0.449 16 New York City Empires 60 96 0.385 26 LATIN AMERICAN DIVISION Team W L PCT GB Buenos Aires Dolphins 99 57 0.635 - Rio de Janeiro Jaguars 86 70 0.551 13 Santo Domingo Palmchats 83 73 0.532 16 Sao Paulo Toucans 79 77 0.506 20 Puerto Rico Coqui 65 91 0.417 34 Major Offseason Moves through last night: I am not including extensions, and to make it easy I consider major moves to be those involving players with salaries of $1M or more or likely starters/major contributors 11/26/2108 - The Singapore Merlions (IBL) traded 27-year-old starting pitcher Mahmood Jaspal and 24-year-old first baseman Vassi Masyagin to the Sao Paulo Toucans, getting 21-year-old minor league third baseman Ireno Neira and 22-year-old minor league left fielder Jeremias Valrio in return. Analysis - Singapore is in full rebuilding mode and the Toucans got some good immediate help here. Most analysts believe that Masyagin might be in line to be trained at third base during spring training as first base is held down by António González. 12/3/2108 - The Santo Domingo Palmchats traded 23-year-old minor league shortstop Abdul-Majid Yazid along with the rights to their 1st, 2nd, and 4th round picks in the 2109 ABL Draft to the Paris Fleur-de-Lis (IBL), getting 27-year-old starting pitcher Zuleide Rainha in return. Analysis - The big question in Santo Domingo was whether the Palmchats would begin the rebuilding process or fight to compete again next year. This trade answered the question emphatically as they traded a lot of their future away for the reigning IBL Pitcher of the Year. 12/5/2108 - Los Angeles Stars sign free agent SP Pei Chan to a 3-year contract worth a total of $2,550,000. Analysis - Good signing for Los Angeles as Chan will likely move into the rotation for only $850K per year. 12/6/2108 - Santo Domingo Palmchats sign free agent SP Devin Mata to a 2-year contract worth a total of $2,000,000. Analysis - The Palmchats found another arm for their rotation, and while Mata is an injury risk the financial commitment was not very high. 12/11/2108 - Mexico City Aztecs sign free agent CF Yok-sing Li to a 3-year contract worth a total of $16,500,000. Analysis - I found this signing very interesting. Li will allow the Aztecs to season Rafael Baca in the minors for another year, but the price seemed a bit high given that Baca seems destined to be a superior option to Li at a minimum salary price before this contract is complete. Still, it helps Mexico City in the short term and their fans are hungry for the playoffs. 12/14/2108 - Los Angeles Stars sign free agent SP Serhat Karpat to a 2-year contract worth a total of $41,470,000. Analysis - The big one. Los Angeles was a shock winner of the Karpat sweepstakes and information is leaking out from around the league that he took much less money than was available elsewhere. While he may have wanted very badly to play in Hollywood, at this time it appears that it may be a short tenure. Clearly there are teams willing to pay this salary and even more, and if the Stars aren't contending then look for Karpat to be a major piece of bait for a huge trade near the deadline.

[CaseyBlakeDeWitt]

What'd you tweak in the season predictions formula? Seems there were some pretty significant adjustments, even given some of the movement on rosters.

[Huckleberry]

I changed the format of the sheet and the formulas to make the calculations faster. Before there were a lot of relative references and matrix equations that made Excel take forever. So the changes may have been partially development related but really it means I probably either had some hidden formula errors or else introduced some.

I also manually pick what I think is each team's best lineup by changing positions where necessary which can change depending on how closely I look at it each time.

The only real calculation change had to do with the assumed split in playing time between starters and bench players.

[squaredrive]

Always enjoy your write ups Huck!  Spot on with the Li mexico city signing, MC overpaid to try improve what is consistently the league's most horrid OBP and permit another year of seasoning for Baca.

[AndyHustle]

Man, I hope these calculations are underestimating my offense this year. It could be spot on if my young bats don't show out this year. Hopefully I have enough pitching to get me through the tough stretches.

[Echo127]

Just out of curiosity, is there any quick way to tell how many players on each teams roster were actually drafted by that team?

[Huckleberry]

Just out of curiosity, is there any quick way to tell how many players on each teams roster were actually drafted by that team?

I can't locate a place where that's easy to see. But that's something I'm interested in so just give me a few minutes.

[Huckleberry]

Best I could do on quick notice, but you can do it on a team-by-team basis for anyone who has a salary on the Team Salaries page now:

http://www.worldbaseballassociation.com/teamsalaries.php

[Los Angeles GM]

I was kind of surprised that the team did so well last year and was in contention to the very end.  Hoping for a respectable showing this year .

[Huckleberry]

Final 2109 Predicted Standings:

NORTH AMERICAN DIVISION

Team W L PCT GB Mexico City Aztecs 86 70 0.551 - Northwest Emeralds 78 78 0.500 8 Los Angeles Stars 74 82 0.474 12 Washington Senators 66 90 0.423 20 New York City Empires 60 96 0.385 26 LATIN AMERICAN DIVISION Team W L PCT GB Buenos Aires Dolphins 99 57 0.635 - Rio de Janeiro Jaguars 89 67 0.571 10 Sao Paulo Toucans 84 72 0.538 15 Santo Domingo Palmchats 81 75 0.519 18 Puerto Rico Coqui 63 93 0.404 36 Aging/development was not kind to my Palmchats since my last update. Still, though, my club is closer to Rio than Rio is to Buenos Aires. Let's hope my system's predictions suck, right?!?!? We'll see how close they are to OOTP's predictions on Opening Day.

[Echo127]

Maybe Rio, Sao Paulo, and Santo Domingo can all chip in and send some hitmen over to break some knee-caps in Buenos Aires.