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2104-05 IBL Offseason Discussion and Analysis
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Topic: 2104-05 IBL Offseason Discussion and Analysis (Read 3510 times)
0 Members and 4 Guests are viewing this topic.
Huckleberry
Administrator
Hero Member
Posts: 3305
2104-05 IBL Offseason Discussion and Analysis
«
on:
August 05, 2016, 10:14:27 AM »
I'm not going to follow all of the transactions in the IBL like I do for my league, but I'd thought I'd start a thread and throw out the model's take on next year's IBL. Basically the model says this is the year that Tokyo's long game strategy pays off in spades. Unfortunately for Tokyoites, the Samurai are planning to relocate when the calendar turns. Some disclaimers on the model:
It is based on the regression analysis and subsequent coefficients I did for the ABL. So the numbers are automatically wrong for the IBL. Close I would assume, but wrong.
As always there are a lot of assumptions I make, including lineups, etc., that won't match what the guy running the team actually does.
I will try to update this from time to time but probably won't be as frequent as the ABL. Feel free to discuss offseason moves here.
AFRO-EUROPEAN DIVISION
Team
W
L
PCT
GB
Paris Fleur-de-Lis
95
61
0.609
-
Scottish Claymores
81
75
0.519
14
Black Forest Foxes
72
84
0.462
23
London Monarchs
66
90
0.423
29
Lagos Eagles
51
105
0.327
44
ASIAN DIVISION
Team
W
L
PCT
GB
Tokyo Samurai
111
45
0.712
-
Mumbai Cobras
89
67
0.571
22
Singapore Merlions
75
81
0.481
36
Seoul Crushers
70
86
0.449
41
Karachi Falcons
70
86
0.449
41
Logged
Coop
Team Owner
Sr. Member
Posts: 475
Re: 2104-05 IBL Offseason Discussion and Analysis
«
Reply #1 on:
August 05, 2016, 01:56:42 PM »
Surprising to see Karachi so low after an aggressive offseason. Also hard to imagine the always-strong Merlions finishing below .500.
I'm not surprised to see Tokyo/Brisbane take a big leap forward; I fully expect that to happen. But I'm going to go out on a limb and say that they won't actually win 111 games.
Logged
claphamsa
Former Owner
Sr. Member
Posts: 384
Re: 2104-05 IBL Offseason Discussion and Analysis
«
Reply #2 on:
August 07, 2016, 10:34:51 AM »
not likely to lose my best hitter and then win 6 more games
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Huckleberry
Administrator
Hero Member
Posts: 3305
Re: 2104-05 IBL Offseason Discussion and Analysis
«
Reply #3 on:
August 08, 2016, 09:04:17 AM »
Update: Lagos starting to spend some money on guys, Tokyo is now Brisbane and they are not resting on their laurels as they picked up a couple of more pieces.
AFRO-EUROPEAN DIVISION
Team
W
L
PCT
GB
Paris Fleur-de-Lis
91
65
0.583
-
Scottish Claymores
77
79
0.494
14
Black Forest Foxes
73
83
0.468
18
London Monarchs
65
91
0.417
26
Lagos Eagles
63
93
0.404
28
ASIAN DIVISION
Team
W
L
PCT
GB
Brisbane Bandits
112
44
0.718
-
Mumbai Cobras
87
69
0.558
25
Singapore Merlions
74
82
0.474
38
Karachi Falcons
71
85
0.455
41
Seoul Crushers
67
89
0.429
45
Logged
Huckleberry
Administrator
Hero Member
Posts: 3305
Re: 2104-05 IBL Offseason Discussion and Analysis
«
Reply #4 on:
August 08, 2016, 09:26:16 AM »
Just realized that these predicted standings would mean a team with a losing record in the playoffs.
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Huckleberry
Administrator
Hero Member
Posts: 3305
Re: 2104-05 IBL Offseason Discussion and Analysis
«
Reply #5 on:
August 10, 2016, 09:56:23 AM »
After the last couple of weeks of moves (and some more of my constant tinkering with formulas)
AFRO-EUROPEAN DIVISION
Team
W
L
PCT
GB
Paris Fleur-de-Lis
88
68
0.564
-
Scottish Claymores
81
75
0.519
7
Black Forest Foxes
72
84
0.462
16
London Monarchs
64
92
0.410
24
Lagos Eagles
63
93
0.404
25
ASIAN DIVISION
Team
W
L
PCT
GB
Brisbane Bandits
112
44
0.718
-
Mumbai Cobras
86
70
0.551
26
Singapore Merlions
73
83
0.468
39
Karachi Falcons
72
84
0.462
40
Seoul Crushers
69
87
0.442
43
Logged
Coop
Team Owner
Sr. Member
Posts: 475
Re: 2104-05 IBL Offseason Discussion and Analysis
«
Reply #6 on:
August 11, 2016, 01:21:05 PM »
So, is Brisbane going to start selling playoff tickets during spring training?
Logged
Txhorns
Team Owner
Sr. Member
Posts: 315
Re: 2104-05 IBL Offseason Discussion and Analysis
«
Reply #7 on:
August 11, 2016, 07:33:50 PM »
So I should just give up now. Good to know.
Logged
Huckleberry
Administrator
Hero Member
Posts: 3305
Re: 2104-05 IBL Offseason Discussion and Analysis
«
Reply #8 on:
August 11, 2016, 07:53:48 PM »
Ha. No, you just may have to rebuilt for a couple of seasons. Or pay the commissioner $1000. Either or.
Logged
Txhorns
Team Owner
Sr. Member
Posts: 315
Re: 2104-05 IBL Offseason Discussion and Analysis
«
Reply #9 on:
August 11, 2016, 07:57:39 PM »
Yes it will be a long rebuild for me. Do you take Best Buy coupons?
Logged
Huckleberry
Administrator
Hero Member
Posts: 3305
Re: 2104-05 IBL Offseason Discussion and Analysis
«
Reply #10 on:
August 12, 2016, 07:26:27 AM »
Not yet, but let's see how bad the O&G sector gets before I make a final decision.
Now for another update. Brisbane signed Prospero Calaa but they're now seeing diminishing returns for each signing. Once you're a heavy favorite it's hard to keep increasing that projection. Depth never hurts, of course. And Lagos' signing of Semei Luwandi (who I tried to steal with a bargain basement offer a couple of sims ago
) moves them out of the projection cellar by a game.
AFRO-EUROPEAN DIVISION
Team
W
L
PCT
GB
Paris Fleur-de-Lis
89
67
0.571
-
Scottish Claymores
81
75
0.519
8
Black Forest Foxes
73
83
0.468
16
Lagos Eagles
64
92
0.410
25
London Monarchs
63
93
0.404
26
ASIAN DIVISION
Team
W
L
PCT
GB
Brisbane Bandits
113
43
0.724
-
Mumbai Cobras
85
71
0.545
28
Singapore Merlions
73
83
0.468
40
Karachi Falcons
71
85
0.455
42
Seoul Crushers
68
88
0.436
45
Logged
Claybor
Former Owner
Full Member
Posts: 161
Re: 2104-05 IBL Offseason Discussion and Analysis
«
Reply #11 on:
August 12, 2016, 09:39:16 AM »
London may surprise some folks. I am not saying that we will be competitive quite yet, but we have quite a few young guys that are only (hopefully) going to get better as the season progresses.
Logged
Coop
Team Owner
Sr. Member
Posts: 475
Re: 2104-05 IBL Offseason Discussion and Analysis
«
Reply #12 on:
August 12, 2016, 09:54:00 AM »
Yeah, London has a lot of good young talent. And the Monarchs have more money than anybody, so if they ever need a free agent, they can get him no matter how badly anybody else wants him.
Logged
Huckleberry
Administrator
Hero Member
Posts: 3305
Re: 2104-05 IBL Offseason Discussion and Analysis
«
Reply #13 on:
August 12, 2016, 11:50:11 AM »
Agreed, have to remember that these are based on my "optimal lineup" determinations for every team. I could very well be wrong on a lot of that, after all once again I am one of the 5 ABL teams that hasn't yet managed to win the league.
Plus it doesn't take into account injury history at all. The best players in each organization are counted on to start the full season (with some depth calculations thrown in as position players miss time during the year due to fatigue).
«
Last Edit: August 12, 2016, 01:44:52 PM by Huckleberry
»
Logged
reflections311
Former Owner
Newbie
Posts: 25
Re: 2104-05 IBL Offseason Discussion and Analysis
«
Reply #14 on:
August 13, 2016, 12:02:07 PM »
Everyone is invited to Brisbane for the playoffs.
Logged
Txhorns
Team Owner
Sr. Member
Posts: 315
Re: 2104-05 IBL Offseason Discussion and Analysis
«
Reply #15 on:
August 13, 2016, 12:08:10 PM »
Y'all can have a playoff watch party in Brisbane while Lagos goes from worst to first and wins it all.
Logged
Karachi_GM
Former Owner
Full Member
Posts: 100
GM, Karachi Falcons
Re: 2104-05 IBL Offseason Discussion and Analysis
«
Reply #16 on:
August 13, 2016, 12:23:38 PM »
Karachi will win more than 71 games.
Logged
Joe
GM, Karachi Falcons
Huckleberry
Administrator
Hero Member
Posts: 3305
Re: 2104-05 IBL Offseason Discussion and Analysis
«
Reply #17 on:
August 15, 2016, 09:46:34 AM »
Final predicted standings as spring training is underway:
AFRO-EUROPEAN DIVISION
Team
W
L
PCT
GB
Paris Fleur-de-Lis
89
67
0.571
-
Scottish Claymores
81
75
0.519
8
Black Forest Foxes
72
84
0.462
17
Lagos Eagles
65
91
0.417
24
London Monarchs
61
95
0.391
28
ASIAN DIVISION
Team
W
L
PCT
GB
Brisbane Bandits
113
43
0.724
-
Mumbai Cobras
91
65
0.583
22
Singapore Merlions
73
83
0.468
40
Karachi Falcons
69
87
0.442
44
Seoul Crushers
66
90
0.423
47
OOTP's predictions:
Some big differences here as well, although the Brisbane predictions match up pretty well. In the Afro-European Division my predictions match OOTP's exactly on Lagos and London but are off by 11-17 games on the other three. In the Asian Division the Brisbane and Karachi numbers are off by one. My prediction is not nearly as high on Singapore as OOTP.
Logged
Coop
Team Owner
Sr. Member
Posts: 475
Re: 2104-05 IBL Offseason Discussion and Analysis
«
Reply #18 on:
August 15, 2016, 10:32:13 AM »
I can't see my Foxes winning 83 games. We're in rebuilding mode and we've got too many holes to make any serious upward move just yet. We're in kind of a grey area, not bad enough to have any chance at a #1 or #2 draft pick but not good enough to be at a point where signing a couple of top free agents would make us contenders. It's not a good situation, really. My approach has been to shed payroll and build through the draft but I don't draft high enough to get the players who are real game changers. I'm afraid I'm going to be stuck in the middle of the pack for a long, long time.
Logged
Txhorns
Team Owner
Sr. Member
Posts: 315
Re: 2104-05 IBL Offseason Discussion and Analysis
«
Reply #19 on:
August 15, 2016, 11:27:41 AM »
I worked on my rosters this morning. My starting shortstop and second baseman are both players drafted this year. Neither one was my first pick either.
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