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I decided to go back and review the "Successes" on my list, with an eye toward being less generous and a little more demanding. I decided that, if I had it to do over again, I'd move Ishemgujin and Mwendapole to the Disappointments list. I'd move Wang and Song to the "Unknowns - too young" category, and I'm really on the fence about Surendranath, Salehe and Ranjan. If you leave those 3 guys as Successes, the final tally is 10 Successes, 13 Disappointments, 9 Flameouts and 5 Unknowns, which means that the Success rate becomes 31 percent (10 of 32). If you move Surendranath, Salehe and Ranjan to the Disappointments list, the tally is 7 Successes, 16 Disappointments, 9 Flameouts and 5 Unknowns, lowering the Success rate to 22 percent (7 of 32).I don't know about anybody else, but I'm a little depressed to think that, when you draft a pitcher in one of the first two rounds, the chances of him becoming a successful big-league pitcher are less than 1 in 3, maybe even less than 1 in 4. But it's not like you may as well wait until the later rounds to select a pitcher. Huck's study shows that players get less productive (significantly so) every round. Simply put, if you want a pitcher, the best you can do is to draft one in the first two rounds and cross your fingers. Most of them just don't make it.
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